AC
AppLovin Corp (APP)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered strong profitability with Revenue $1.26B (+77% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $1.02B (+99% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA margin 81%; diluted EPS was $2.39; Free Cash Flow was $768M .
- Management raised Q3 2025 guidance to Revenue $1.32–$1.34B and Adjusted EBITDA $1.07–$1.09B, maintaining 81% margin; CFO noted guidance incorporates a small uplift from the apps divestiture .
- Strategic catalysts: Axon Ads Manager self-serve opening via referral on Oct 1 and expansion to major international markets; paid marketing to recruit advertisers expected post full launch in 2026, with emphasis on automation and generative ad tools .
- Structural shift: Apps portfolio sale closed June 30; Q2 includes discontinued operations and $425M net cash inflow, streamlining focus to advertising; 0.9M shares repurchased ($341M) and diluted shares fell to ~342M .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- 81% Adjusted EBITDA margin with $1.02B Adjusted EBITDA highlights operating leverage; CFO cited 81% revenue-to-EBITDA flow-through QoQ, reflecting lean operations .
- Gaming remains primary growth driver; models continue to improve and Max marketplace supply grew double digits; management confident in sustaining 20–30% YoY growth from gaming alone .
- Self-serve Axon Ads Manager launched quietly; referral program opens Oct 1 with international expansion, reducing onboarding friction (Shopify app, attribution integrations, dynamic product ads) .
What Went Wrong
- Sequential revenue declined vs Q1 due to structural mix change (apps sold and presented as discontinued operations) despite strong YoY growth; Q2 total revenue $1.26B vs Q1 $1.48B .
- E-commerce onboarding was constrained to prioritize product readiness, limiting near-term non-gaming contribution (still ~10% range); management expects ramp starting in Q4 seasonality and broader release .
- Some advertisers desire Meta-like features (e.g., exclusion lists); management prioritizes full-funnel automation over manual controls and acknowledges differing attribution constraints for high-ticket/long-consideration purchases .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS, and Margins vs Prior Periods and Estimates
Estimates comparison (Wall Street consensus – S&P Global):
- Q1 2025: Revenue consensus $1,382,259,190*, EPS consensus $1.44235*; actual Revenue $1,484,021 , diluted EPS $1.67 → beat.
- Q2 2025: Revenue consensus $1,220,255,140*, EPS consensus $1.98468*; actual Revenue $1,258,754 , diluted EPS $2.39 → beat.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment Breakdown (pre-divestiture context)
Note: Q2 2025 Apps results presented as discontinued operations following the sale to Tripledot (closed June 30, 2025) .
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Note: CFO indicated Q3 guide includes slight revenue uplift from the apps divestiture impact .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Q2 twenty twenty five was another great quarter, driven by continued strength in gaming advertising… we are confident we can sustain 20 to 30% year over year growth driven by just gaming.” — CEO Adam Foroughi .
- “Quarter over quarter flow through from revenue to adjusted EBITDA was a very strong 81%… we generated $768,000,000 in free cash flow… diluted common shares outstanding… down to 342,000,000 this quarter.” — CFO Matt Stumpf .
- “On 10/01/2025, we plan to open the Axon Ads Manager on a referral basis… then guide our global public launch in the 2026.” — CEO Adam Foroughi .
- “On June 30, 2025 we completed the sale of our Apps business to Tripledot Studios… results related to our Apps business are presented as discontinued operations.” — Press release .
Q&A Highlights
- Self-serve and referrals: Program aims for organic peer invites; minimal or no paid referral incentives; opens international inventory; curated onboarding to ensure quality .
- Paid marketing: Management expects to use performance marketing to recruit advertisers post broader launch; will spend only if LTV/CAC is compelling; impact booked in sales & marketing but expected to be margin-accretive .
- Guidance mechanics: Q3 guide includes a slight uplift from apps divestiture; underlying reinforcement learning trend ~3–5% QoQ growth with periodic step-function model enhancements .
- Attribution/features: Advertisers seek Meta-like controls (e.g., exclusion lists), but platform strategy prioritizes automation; dynamic product ads and improved attribution integrations rolled out .
- Regulatory tailwinds: Apple vs Epic fee changes could boost UA spend; timing expected over several quarters before material pricing impact .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 beat on both revenue and EPS vs consensus: Revenue $1,258.8M vs $1,220.3M*, EPS $2.39 vs $1.985* .
- Q1 2025 was also a beat: Revenue $1,484.0M vs $1,382.3M*, EPS $1.67 vs $1.442* .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Profitability profile remains exceptional (81% Adjusted EBITDA margin; $768M FCF in Q2), supporting premium valuation narratives despite structural mix changes post apps divestiture .
- Raised Q3 guide and continued margin strength provide near-term support; modest revenue uplift from the apps sale included in outlook .
- Gaming growth engine intact with double-digit Max supply expansion and ongoing model improvements; management targets 20–30% YoY growth from gaming alone .
- E-commerce cohort set to re-accelerate in Q4 seasonality and broaden via referral onboarding and international expansion; watch for self-serve adoption and advertiser count inflection .
- Product roadmap (self-serve, agents, generative ads) should enhance advertiser LTV and automate workflows, potentially sustaining high incremental margins even with paid acquisition .
- Capital allocation remains shareholder-friendly (buybacks, disciplined S&M spend); diluted shares trend downward, amplifying EPS leverage .
- Monitor execution milestones: Oct 1 referral opening, international inventory access, Q4 e-commerce ramp, and cadence of AXON model enhancements for step-function gains .
Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow are defined and reconciled in the company’s materials; Q2 Adjusted EBITDA $1,018M and margin 81%; FCF $768M **[1751008_0001751008-25-000069_exhibit991-2q25earningspre.htm:6]** **[1751008_0001751008-25-000069_exhibit991-2q25earningspre.htm:5]**.
Structural note: Apps sale to Tripledot closed June 30, 2025; Apps results shown as discontinued operations in Q2 **[1751008_0001751008-25-000069_exhibit991-2q25earningspre.htm:0]**.